As the Kawempe North by-election reaches its climax, President Yoweri Museveni is set to campaign for Faridah Nambi, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate, on Tuesday afternoon.
This last-minute intervention underscores the ruling party’s determination to capture a seat long dominated by the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP).
But can Museveni’s presence shift the electoral dynamics, or will the constituency remain loyal to the opposition?
Kawempe’s political landscape
Kawempe North has historically been a stronghold for opposition parties.
The late Muhammad Ssegirinya, a staunch NUP member, won the seat in the 2021 general elections with an overwhelming majority, riding on the wave of Bobi Wine’s popularity in Kampala.
With NUP fielding Erias Luyimbaazi Nalukoola as their candidate, the party is looking to retain its dominance.
However, NRM sees an opportunity to make inroads, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction and internal divisions within NUP.
The significance of Museveni’s visit
Museveni’s decision to personally campaign in Kawempe North signals the NRM’s aggressive push to capture the constituency.
His visit is expected to mobilize government resources, boost Nambi’s visibility, and reassure NRM supporters of the party’s commitment to winning the seat. Historically, the President’s presence in elections has led to increased voter turnout among NRM supporters and significant financial incentives to woo undecided voters.
Additionally, Nambi enjoys the backing of her father, Al-Hajj Moses Kigongo, the NRM’s vice-chairman, whose influence among the Muslim community in Kawempe could prove crucial. The ruling party is banking on this to split the opposition vote, especially considering the divisions within Ssegirinya’s family over their preferred candidate.
Challenges facing NRM
Despite the resources and political muscle behind Nambi, the NRM faces an uphill battle in flipping Kawempe North. The constituency remains fiercely pro-opposition, and Museveni’s presence may not be enough to sway entrenched NUP supporters.
Moreover, allegations of electoral violence and police brutality during the campaign period have fueled anti-government sentiments, potentially strengthening NUP’s support.
Reports of security forces disrupting opposition rallies and arresting NUP supporters have reinforced the perception of state interference in elections, a narrative that could work against Nambi.
What this means for NUP
For NUP, Museveni’s visit could be a rallying call for opposition supporters to turn out in large numbers and defend their seat. Bobi Wine and his party have been actively mobilizing, emphasizing their role as the only viable alternative to the ruling government.
If NUP secures a resounding victory, it will reaffirm their grip on Kampala politics and send a strong message that urban voters remain resistant to NRM’s influence. However, if Nambi performs better than expected, it could signal a gradual shift in voter loyalty, especially if the ruling party successfully leverages development promises and financial incentives.
Museveni’s entry into the Kawempe North campaign has added a dramatic twist to an already intense race.
While NRM is making a strong case for change, NUP’s historical dominance and anti-government sentiments may be too deep-seated to overcome.
Whether Museveni’s visit will turn the tide remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the Kawempe North by-election is set to be a critical test for both parties ahead of future electoral contests.
