By Richard Job Matua
What most people, most especially the Opposition don’t know is that an election is a process, not a one-day event. This means that many key activities actually take place way before the actual dates for polling making it easy to predict the outright winner and according to my assessment, President Museveni and the entire National Resistance Movement are slated to win.
All available Scientific facts and Evidence show that NRM is winning the 2021 General Election by far bigger percentage than that of 2016 and here is why;
To start with, NRM has the biggest support at the grassroot. This is something Opposition Politicians know but lack political capacity and logistics to challenge. It is these grassroot structures that influence the actual voting pattern through out the country.
Take for example, NRM has 30 members who are registered voters per village committee all over the country, multiplying 30 voters by the 70,626 villages in Uganda means president Museveni and NRM already have over 2 million votes in waiting. Therefore, by lacking grassroot support in the majority of the places, Opposition Politicians have actually already lost the forthcoming Election.
As the saying goes, numbers don’t lie. It is Scientifically clear that Opposition is actually thin minority in Uganda. Out of 18,900 unopposed Candidates in all elective positions in the ongoing election, all Opposition Candidates combined make up only 0.8% (FDC – 106, NUP – 54, UPC – 43, DP – 12, ANT – 02 and JEEMA – 01). NRM has 96% (18,141) and Independent Candidates who are in fact NRM leaning are 03.2% (614).
The evidence above clearly shows the massive strength of the mighty NRM mass party that the Opposition has failed to divert. It is even more ugly to see that unopposed Independent Candidates are more than Opposition Candidates. This to me shows the unpopularity and chronic lack of real support Opposition Politicians experience in Uganda.
Another important factor to look at in this election is the overall number of nominated candidates by the electoral commission. The two leading Opposition political parties, FDC and NUP only have 6,528 and 4,955 nominated Candidates respectively in all elective Positions Country wide. NRM alone is having 43,849 nominated Candidates while nominated Independent candidates (99% of whom are aggrieved NRM members) are 31,007.
Furthermore, available facts from the Independent Electoral Commission show that NRM is going to dominate District Council positions across the country. Out of 146 Districts in Uganda, NRM nominated candidates in 145 districts, opposition parties nominated as follows; FDC – 55, NUP – 47, ANT – 21, UPC – 18, DP – 14 and JEEMA – 01. Shockingly after President Museveni and the NRM winning majority of these district, opposition will cry the usual foul rhetoric claiming NRM has rigged them forgetting the nominated candidates alone have a lot to say about their strength in the country.
It is also important to look at Parliament and how NRM is performing already even before election day. As we all know, Parliament is a very important arm of Government that any sitting Government must have in control because its functions are so pivotal in the functioning of Government.
Already, NRM has 6 unopposed members of Parliament waiting to be sworn in while the Opposition has non. This is a very significant indicator that NRM is a strong party and the masses are fully behind its agenda.
In terms of Parliamentary nominations, NRM is in a significant lead already, take for example the District Women Members of Parliament, NRM nominated candidates in 145 Districts out of 146 Districts, the Opposition nominated as follows; FDC – 68, NUP – 60, DP – 25, ANT – 23, UP – 12, and JEEMA – 05. For Directly Elected Members of Parliament, NRM nominated candidates in 351 constituencies out of 353 constituencies across the country, on the other hand, the Opposition nominated as follows; FDC – 213, NUP – 182, DP – 95, ANT – 93, UPC – 30, JEEMA – 14, EPU – 05, PPP – 03, and CP – 02.
In a nutshell, I think it is superficial and schematic to imagine a win for the Opposition in the forthcoming election at Presidential, Parliamentary and Local Government levels most especially in such a situation where preliminary figures as I have elaborated above depict the Opposition’s mobilization capacity as being inadequate. Therefore, let us not pretend or imagine the impossible that the Opposition can win, the truth is that the Opposition has already lost the forthcoming Election to NRM.
The writer is an NRM Cadre and Political Commentator.