By Edward B
It has been months and years that the international and local opinion fear that Burundi and Rwanda will go to military war. This feeling is strengthened by the unfriendly messages and mutual accusations between the two countries.
The recent comments made by Rwanda’s president during his military armada exercise were seen as evidence of the preparedness of his army to attack Burundi.
This pushes journalists and analysts to feed the public with threatening headings in the newspapers: “the sound of boots”, “fire”, “internationalized internal war” etc. This creates a kind of panic and conviction that war between the two countries is near. I do not share this prediction for different reasons (II). Before I detail my reasons, I will allow myself to remind the readers the historic background behind the quarrel between Rwanda and Burundi (I).
I) short historic background of the discomfort between Burundi and Rwanda
Some analysts and so-called specialists of Burundi and Africa say that this discomfort between the two countries started in 2015 after the ruling party in Burundi, the CNDD-FDD, put forward H.E. Pierre Nkurunziza as a running candidate in the elections.
But any careful observer can easily discover that turmoil in Burundi started long before the candidate’s name was unveiled to the public. The reader needs to have in mind the cases of burnt markets and supermarkets, targeted assassinations to cause public unrest, the campaign against Mr. Nkurunziza’s third term before he was appointed candidate, etc.
The important question that the reader is supposed to be asking himself is: “Why does Rwanda have interest in destabilizing Burundi?” The answer is simple for the people who know the history of both countries: Rwanda’s main frustration is the way Burundi handles its own affairs in terms of power sharing, reconciliation, economic development and diplomatic orientation.
For Burundi, the best way to heal wounds of the past is to reconcile all the components of its population by power sharing and open public debate on all pending issues. Democratically, Burundi is more advanced than Rwanda in terms of freedom of speech, freedom of press and public participation in public affairs.
Economically, the option taken by Burundi to promote inclusive development in order to reduce social inequalities proves to be more efficient. All parts of Burundi enjoy the same attention from the government in terms of development projects.
All provinces of Burundi are carrying out development projects and are moving at the same pace. This is not the case in Rwanda where all development efforts are focused on Kigali, the capital city, while people are dying of hunger and malnutrition in rural areas.
Fake statistics put forward for the world to consume are contradicted by images of Rwandese dying of hunger and fleeing the country to seek refuge or work in Uganda and other neighboring countries. There is a permanent fear that Rwandese population could demand changes in terms of political, democratic and economic freedoms.
Diplomatically, Burundi seeks to promote friendly relations with its neighbors while Rwanda is always trying to destabilize them: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Burundi.
Rwanda has more enemies than Burundi if one considers the number of armed opposition groups waiting to take advantage of any mistake by Rwandese government. Burundi’s contribution to stabilize the eastern part of Congo proved that Burundi supports peace and stability in the region. Due to good cooperation between Burundi and the international community, M23, a rebel group armed and supported by Rwanda was crushed.
By this act, Burundi said a big “No” to the looting of Congolese resources by some Western powers via Rwanda. They are the same powers which want to set fire on Burundi using Rwanda to put a henchman on power in Burundi who would cooperate in this devilish act of not only looting Congolese natural resources but also help destabilize Tanzania, a country some Westerners want to lay hands on.
The defeat of this rebel group was felt by Rwanda as its own defeat and therefore Rwanda will never forgive Burundi for this act. This is the origin of the unease between Burundi and Rwanda and this started in 2013 not in 2015.
II) Reasons why an open military war between Burundi and Rwanda is unlikely.
My analysis aims at diffusing tensions and panic triggered by tense climate between the two neighboring countries. My assumption is that there are no major problems between Burundi and Rwanda that cannot be solved by diplomatic means. Regardless the whistles and threats from Rwanda authorities to attack Burundi, there is no evidence that Rwanda would militarily win a war waged against a neighbor. Rwanda is not sure of the scope of the spillover effect of such a war on its own interests and population and the region as a whole.
I wish the analyst Birantamije could go further in his analysis during an interview granted to Iwacu Newspaper in Burundi. Neither the analyst nor the journalist did want to dig deeper. The answer to the question about who would reap the dividends of a war between Rwanda and Burundi would have helped the opinion to understand the dynamics in the region (regional and international). In my view, knowing who would benefit from the war, entails identifying the fly that is buzzing in the Rwandese angry bull’s ear. I do agree with the analyst that an open war between Rwanda and Burundi would have unprecedented devastating consequences on both countries, on the region and on the continent. It would cause political, economic, humanitarian, turmoil and challenges.
The conviction that an open war between the two countries is unlikely (without totally ruling out the human stupidity and foolishness) holds on the fact that if Paul is ready to open the gates of hell to his people, Peter seems to do everything possible to temper the situation. This choice may be seen by some, as a sign of weakness but it is highly strategic and rational. It would be a mistake for Burundi to fall in the dramatization game the neighbor seems to indulge his fancy in. The best success for any head of state is to avoid any war on his own territory and
Burundi president quite understands this and opposes Rwanda’s aggressive acts with a good dose of humility.
The second reason derives from what analysts call “reason of war”: who would win what in this war and who, between Rwanda and Burundi is sure to win the war? Without assurances of success, it would be hazardous and foolish to wage a war one is not sure to win. I was very surprised to read in a French Newspaper “Mediapart” an article by Philippe Mpayimana (2016) where the author states that “if Burundi and Rwanda had to go to war against each other, Rwanda would win the war”.
I wished he could support his assumption with evidence based on sound statistics. Many predicted that the United States would easily win the war in Somalia, in Vietnam or in Afghanistan in days but it took them years and years and up to now war continues in those countries: ‘one knows when to start the war but does not know when and how to stop it”, specialists say. Of course Rwanda may be blinded by its free walk in Democratic Republic of Congo which allowed Rwanda leaders to lay hands on the mineral resources of Congo (one of the reasons of war), but Burundi is not DR Congo and Rwanda knows it very well.
Another important aspect to mention is that Kagame counts more on Burundians to fight his war in Burundi than on his own army. But the recent past has demonstrated the limits of this strategy. In 2015, many Rwandese were involved in the insurrection in Burundi but most of them have been neutralized together with those Burundians they came so support. Those of Burundians who went astray in 2015 and fled to Rwanda are now coming to the harsh reality of Rwanda: most of them are in captivity in a kind of house arrest and cannot move freely. Those who have a chance to escape do not hesitate a minute.
They now know that they would be better off in their own country. Rwanda is using ethnic arguments to persuade some Burundians to rally Kagame’s war on Burundi. If his own citizens are fleeing Rwanda, what would happen to Burundian he is misleading? This is a trap that Burundians will no more fall in. Those who betrayed Burundi and fled to Rwanda are simple objects for trade-offs that can be disposed of as it pleases including physical elimination depending on circumstances: General Niyombare is a living testimony and soon or later will discover the true face of his mentors and protectors.
Rwanda understands better that a war against Burundi would be catastrophic on its own people and this is the reason why Rwanda’s option is rather to economically and diplomatically thwart Burundi. The burning of markets and supermarkets in Burundi back in 2014 and 2015, introduction of fake bank notes, collecting foreign currency to create scarcity and hamper Burundi capacity to import goods aimed at creating frustration of the population that would trigger regime change. Rwanda and its M23 reservists are aware of combating capacity of Burundi troops for having met them in different opportunities in Congo.
In addition to this, and regardless the appearances, Rwanda is a very divided country with many armed opposition groups just waiting to take advantage of any miscalculation by Rwanda authorities. It is no secret that Rwanda has problems with almost all its neighboring countries: Burundi, Uganda, and DR Congo. This only reason is enough to prevent Rwanda from launching a war against any country in the region.
I will conclude by saying that Rwanda succeeded to sow fear in the region and in the world by the fact that acts committed by Rwanda leaders since 1993 up to now are still not accounted for and this gives them a kind of feeling that they rule the world. Many reports on Rwanda by NGOs and the United Nations are still hidden in drawers in UN offices because those who are using Rwandese leaders are still controlling the world affairs and still need them to do a dirty job in the region. If not, how can one understand why a “so-called third term in Burundi” is more condemnable than a “fourth, 5th or 6th term elsewhere?
This is of course the main reason the East African Community members cannot discuss the threat Rwanda is causing to the Community.
This is one of the reasons why no head of state in the East-African Community will dare to point an accusing finger to Rwanda or bring in the Community’s meetings issues that are likely to irritate Rwanda. But failing to tackle real issues will end up by hampering the whole East-African Community integration projects. All in all, we can expect desperate acts of terror on Burundi from Rwanda but not an open military war against Burundi.
The writer is a citizen of Burundi.